TT: No... Just... No...

The Toronto Star ran a story earlier this week about how a Downtown Relief Line would make life easier for the suburbs by relieving congestion on the main lines. This is not incorrect. The following image from the story however...

... yeah, kinda flawed.

The main problem with it is the assumption that the line should run to Union. This would be a categorical mistake because we already know Union will approach capacity around the middle of this century and we need to divert people from there. Not only that, but where's the incentive to users to get off the Bloor line to goto Union to get onto the Yonge Line and backtrack north along one arch or the other? There really isn't one, so the argument that we're going to free up space at Bloor/Yonge this way is flawed.

Because of this, any Downtown Relief Line needs to cross through at Queen so that you both relieve traffic at Union and allow people to cut off some subway stops if they're heading mid-downtown. In fact, an older Toronto Star story about the capacity issues building up shows an Metrolinx projected route that does just that:

This route makes much more sense because you're both intervening further out to divert people from the far east end from Bloor/Yonge and you're diverting them through Queen - Within walking distance or 1 stop from most of the business district where people work/shop.

My primary problem with this later plan is the swing south to Exhibition Place which seems unnecessary given the seasonal use nature of the place at the moment. I'd rather see the west end run straight through to Dufferin/Queen, link up with a new Go Hub there, and divert people from Union at that location before eventually extending through into Etobicoke. With the Streetcar right-of-ways currently in place to service Exhibition Place likely capable of handling the traffic, we could then look to a north/south midtown line to run there in the future should the nature of use for the location change.

Likewise, traffic could be further relieved upon the Yonge line from the East by making use of the Don Mills rail right of way to build out a surface transit line that would run down to the Port Lands as envisioned in the first Toronto Star graphic and could serve to move people between the Bloor, Sheppard, and proposed DRL.

TyL: When $1 Billion isn't $1 Billion.

Rob Ford likes to say: "We've got $1 Billion, lets build the Sheppard Subway out to Victoria Park".

Small problem: he doesn't have $1 Billion. In anything other than monopoly money that is.

What Ford had was an agreement that would've done the following two things: see $333M from the Federal government previously pledged to the Sheppard LRT under Transit City and up to $650M from the Provincial government if there was money left over from tunnelling all of Eglinton; a conditional which, given the history of these kinds of projects, is a pretty big given to accept at face value. Now, City Council tossed that agreement to the curve when they began overruling the Mayor on this file and established their own agenda so, at this point, one has to question where that money really lands. I suspect you could make a fairly safe argument that City Council is now positioned to decide where that money goes and that the Federal and Provincial money will flow back to a Sheppard LRT they were originally intended to fund and no longer be available for anything else.

If that's the case at the end of the day, then there's no money for subway stops at all and anyone who tells you otherwise is selling something.

Rant: Subways in Toronto. This Bullshit has to Stop.

Toll roads are an option, he said, but rather than put tolls on the Gardiner Expressway and the Don Valley Parkway, Councillor Ford proposed new purpose-built freeways through the city.

“On a nickel a kilometre — it’ll bring in $200 million a year,” he said, noting it would cost “a good chunk” to build new highways, but then all revenues could flow to subway construction. He said he would happily pay $3 to whiz downtown from Etobicoke rather than be stuck in Gardiner gridlock.

Excuse me. I need to go scream at the heavens for a bit...

ok....

No, still need to find my happy place... BRB...

...

Ok... heres the problem folks. The Fords want to build subways but no one wants to pay taxes or development fees to finance them, they also don't have the cajones to admit they screwed up when they canceled a revenue stream that could have paid for Subways when they bought votes with tax cuts, and so now we find then unable to bankroll their big platform idea.

Remember this key detail, because it's important: there's no money for their little project. Zero, zilch, nada. Not only that, but even the Chong plan has now been debunked by City Hall staff outside the "disloyal" TTC who found the revenue projections overly optimistic and the case still ~$1 Billion short at the end of the day before said projections crashed into the wall that was reality.

So, again, there is no money.

Having realized this Doug, who's supposedly the "smarter" brother, now suggests the solution is to build new freeways (because, again folks, no cajones to place tolls on existing freeways to be found here), and toll those because it seems that while there is no money for subways there is money in some dark recess of City Hall for that.

Sorry, but I call bullshit.

Here is what's going to be needed to get "new" freeways built in Toronto:

1) Environmental Assessment of Routes which means millions of dollars and years spent chasing our tails just to plot the trail.

2) Mass expropriation of land. Unless you want to tunnel the whole thing (hey, that's only a few hundred million a kilometre, if you're lucky. Just ask Boston), you're going to have to buy people out of the way because there is very little open space left within the city. With ramshackle huts in this town going for $500K a pop, this will amount to hundreds of millions if not billions of dollars. Oh, and court cases to tie the process up for a few more years.

3) OMB Reviews. Yes, even those folks who don't get their land expropriated are going to be pissy when you announce there's now going to be a freeway through their neighbourhood. Have fun sitting around the court table for another few years.

4) Yay! Maybe we can get to construction now! That'll just cost a few billion and, take 5 to 10 years as they split out the payouts to construction over multiple years, and play havoc on city traffic flow as we tear up existing streets, build overpasses, and off/on ramps. No problems there at all....

So, I'd say a safe, conservative estimate, is that about 15 to 25 years from now and Billions later you'll get freeways to pay for subways. Good thing Mr Mammoliti and "Finch Area Residents" are willing to wait 50 years to get them 'cause that would the the optimistic timeframe as I'm willing to bet cold hard cash that Tolls will have to pay all this back before they can be directed to feed subways.

One small little problem: if there's no fucking money to pay to build subways where's the money going to come for this???

The private sector? Well, lets stop, look, and listen for a second. Doug suggests a Toll of 5 cents a kilometre. The 407 ETR charges 19-25 cents/km depending on the time of day. Thus, if you're looking to the private sector I suggest you try again off your meds 'cause they're affecting your perception of reality: they're going to want far more than 5 cents.

Sooooo, without a much higher fare we're likely back to the public sector spending billions in the hope that someday they might be able to make money to build something else.

Suggestion: if we have the billions to build new freeways we damned well have the billions to build the subways that make them irrelevant. Or we don't; remember point one folks. In the later case, council really needs to put an end to the Rob and Doug show so we can get back to legitimate discussion of how to get this done because the current spittle coming from their foaming little mouths is inarguably full of it and amounts to little but a continuation of pander beyond measure.

Rant: Dear Toronto News Media...

... I do so love how you're looking at Karen Stintz's new transit plan and being positively gleeful about Rob Ford being "dealt another defeat". You even went out and got quotes and everything from "supporters" on council "hopeful" that the mayor will "come on side".

What you seem to be ignoring is a simple reality: Rob Ford is going to be quite happy to run his next campaign with a list of "those big bad councillors" who "prevented him from getting things done".

In other words: he doesn't give a shit if he loses; it's just more ammo for next time.

The longer you twits at the Toronto Star continue to shove your head up your ass gloating while ignoring the reality that the people who "support" Rob Ford aren't going to end up that list and, in fact, are likely running cover for what basically amounts to the Mayor's office becoming increasingly aware that the private sector isn't inclined to foot the bill for one metre of the Sheppard extension (as I pointed out would likely happen), the longer you're giving him press to point to to back up his claim. Now, because we're at the point where consensus is that there's little to no money for extending Sheppard coming from the private sector, this means anyone with an ounce of sense realizes we need to come up with money from somewhere to get a token station built. Token? Remember: even while saying he's having problems lining up money Gordon Chong, the man in charge of finding the fictional private sector money, has maintained an expectation that getting another station done on that line is the minimum goal to show that the "Mayor has done something".

So, going forward with knowledge of the actual purpose of this station, the worst part is that we need to come up with money to get a token station built at the wrong end of the fucking line.

Why do I say that? Well, consider the following: in 2015 the Spadina Subway extension will be opening so... how are we planning to move the people to be coming in from the 905 from the Spadina line to the Yonge Line? How about those from the Yonge Line looking to go north? Ahhhh, yes... busses. In other words, increased traffic on the already overcrowded Finch bus line and/or the continuation of the Express busses on Sheppard. In the later case, busses you'd otherwise be looking to take off the route once the subway runs to York University since that's the primary reason for their existence at the moment.

But, what happens if you run the Sheppard line West to Downsview instead of East one stop to Victoria Park/Consumers Road? You move all those people looking to move to/from the Yonge line off of busses and onto a 2-3 stop subway trip, that's what. This serves much more of a purpose than shaving 5 minutes off a bus trip along Sheppard to Don Mills station. Even more relevant, this stretch of Sheppard is also seeing significant redevelopment and a bit of a condo boom - especially closer to Downsview station.

Because of this, there's more sense going West than East in the grand scheme of things if your goal is to improve the interconnectivity of the transportation network. On the other hand, the only reason to goto Victoria Park is entirely political and going to be praised by the Mayor as a win even while he's lambasting his opponents for putting the far end of the Eglinton Crosstown above ground (along a stretch of road 7-8 lanes wide. i.e.: where there's room). The Toronto Star in particular could stand to be slapped out of their current "Looossssinnggg" Charlie Sheen-esque drug infused daydream in that regard.

Rant: Subways Update

It will likely take new road tolls and congestion charges and other revenue tools to help deliver “the biggest transit deal in North America, or perhaps the world,” says the man hired to pave the path toward the $4 billion Sheppard Subway.

Grab the popcorn, pull up a seat, and get ready for a good show 'cause the Toronto Political Games are about to begin in earnest later this year.

Personally, I'm on record as expecting this whole thing to get flushed this fall but, hey, I can't wait to see this city's response if council starts talking about creating toll roads... At least someone's not dumb enough to expect the private sector's going to be all that interested in footing the entire bill for the Ford's pet Subway.

TotD: The more I see of Rob Ford...

... in action the more I get the opinion that he exists to delay Transit City long enough that the Tories can get elected this fall and cancel the whole kit and caboodle of transit funding for Toronto in an effort to trim the provincial deficit like they did back in the 90's.

At which point he can throw his hands in the air and claim it's all "The Province's" fault we've seen no transit infrastructure improvements of significance in this city in the last 20 years. Suggesting we blow billions on Subway lines to Scarborough when it lacks the population densities is part of this strategy - it makes it look like he wants to do something when he knows damned well no one is going to want to pay for his plan; least of all the private sector who, if they have any common sense, will be looking at his suggestion that they pay for the rights to build/run stations against splits of redevelopment money of the surrounding land and counterbalancing it against the Spadina Line north of St Clair station where you've entrenched residential owners who've fought any attempt to bring housing capacity to the areas around those stations tooth and nail and brought redevelopment to a snails pace. They'd be idiots to bet on being able to make their money back without city guarantees that they will, which we keep being told won't happen. Until it does.

Meanwhile, the lines that need to be built - particularly the long overdue Eglinton (hi 3 busses every 5 minutes at peak along low capacity roadways with no room for expansion within the areas of highest occupancy), and Downtown Relief Lines (the core is the heart of this city, we've largely successfully avoided the urban planning disaster of "hollowing it out" through multiple past initiatives, and we need to maintain ready access to it, the workplaces, and event facilities it contains) - continue to be overshadowed by largely Conservative pre-occupation with running lines out to residential Scarborough and its tracts of single dwelling households. You begin to get the idea that there's... "election funding"... tied to this from developers looking at cheap land, relatively speaking, and hoping they can go there instead of buying and/or redeveloping expensive buildings/properties nearer to the core. Which sounds great on paper, until you remember that the OMB lurkith like a troll waiting for them to cross the bridge and be consumed while existing residents close in from either end, furious with rage, to stop them escaping with pitchforks and fire.

The funny thing is, the Downtown Relief Line is already built - we need merely work with Private Enterprise and Go to take over the tracks and get TTC trains on them with a regular schedule. 4 lanes in and out of Union Station allowing for Express lines through the middle and Locals on the outers so we can whisk people into and out of the core as fast as they need to go or let them go 2 stops within the city. Before someone goes apeshit about no "First Class City" using rail... well, Tokyo's entire network is built on a combination of Surface and Subsurface trains, with the subsurface lines being largely internal to the city and the surface lines dual purposing as feeders from the surrounding towns. So, it's not like this has never been done before. For the most part, we need merely add more stations to existing lines and better connect existing Go Facilities with the TTC ones and we could have this sub-line operating out of Union in short order.

The primary problem will be working out how to deal with commercial traffic, in the form of shipping, that still needs to travel through the city. Do we have sufficient lanes to simply schedule around it, or would we need to work out a diversion line to take train traffic around the north end of the city instead of through the lower core. A key question that will also need to be answered is how much of that traffic still stops within the city itself, especially as the Harbour has become more playplace than Industrial Hub.

Finally, if we want Subways, maybe it's time we started bloody well paying for them instead of expecting other people to (the funny thing about Ford's stance on Transit City: the Province is footing essentially the entire bill and we've largely one man telling them to go fuck themselves. Gift Horse meet Mouth.). The city now has the power to levy special taxes, as evidenced by all the new ones that were introduced by the prior administration that the current one has decided to try and bankrupt us by cutting. So, figure out just how much of a tax is required to pay for X amount of new subway/year, legislate that the money from this tax be lock-boxed away from council and the TTC so it can't be lost into general revenues, and put the plan to a referendum and let the people decide.

We'll either decide we want to go forward with it, or we won't. But, either way, at least we'd have actually made progress towards deciding to do something other than tugging at Mom's leg like a 4 year old and throwing a tantrum when we're told no.